Approved growth (2019/2020→2023/2024)
39.85%
Actual growth (2019/2020→2023/2024)
37.46%
Peak national execution year
2022/2023 (102.25%)
Top 10 share of actual (range)
70.05%–73.58%
5-year Approved (sum)
121,610,219,749,448
5-year Actual (sum)
117,382,626,426,158
Overspending votes' share (range)
22.12%–73.91%
Top 1 vote share (start year)
Vote 022 • 47.25%
Top 1 vote share (end year)
Vote 001 • 38.39%
Votes always in Top 10 by actual (count)
8
National recurrent envelope: Approved vs Actual (5-year)
Across FY2019/20–FY2023/24, the approved recurrent budget increased from 20.860 T to 29.173 T (+8.313 T, +39.85%). Actual recurrent spending rose from 19.883 T to 27.332 T (+7.449 T, +37.46%). Over the five years, 117.383 T was spent against 121.610 T approved (96.52% overall execution), leaving a cumulative underspend of 4.228 T.
National execution rate (Actual ÷ Approved)
National recurrent execution is volatile across the period. It bottoms out at 93.22% in FY2020/21 (underspend 1.499 T) and peaks at 102.25% in FY2022/23 (overspend 0.595 T). After that overspend year, execution falls back to 93.69% in FY2023/24 (underspend 1.841 T), signalling that year-end control is highly sensitive to a small number of large recurrent lines.
Structural shift spotlight: Vote 001 vs Vote 022 (composition of actual)
The structure of recurrent spending changes sharply from FY2022/23. Vote 022 (Consolidated Fund Services) dominates FY2019/20–FY2021/22 at 9.394–10.237 T per year (about 45–47% of total), but drops to 3.078 T (11.37%) in FY2022/23 and 1.782 T (6.52%) in FY2023/24. In parallel, Vote 001 (Public Debt) rises from near-zero to 9.960 T (36.79%) in FY2022/23 and 10.492 T (38.39%) in FY2023/24. This is a clear structural break, so year-to-year comparisons should be interpreted with this reclassification/shift in mind.
Concentration: Top 10 votes’ share of total actual
Recurrent spending is consistently concentrated: the Top 10 votes account for between 70.05% (FY2023/24) and 73.58% (FY2022/23) of total actual recurrent expenditure. In absolute terms, Top-10 spending rose from 14.526 T in FY2019/20 to 19.145 T in FY2023/24 (+4.620 T), meaning oversight of a small set of votes increasingly determines the national recurrent execution outcome.
Overspending dominance: share of spend executed by overspending votes
The share of spending occurring in overspending votes rises dramatically over the period. In FY2019/20–FY2021/22, overspending votes account for 22.12–34.62% of recurrent spending; from FY2022/23 onward that jumps above 72% (72.60% in FY2022/23 and 73.91% in FY2023/24). This pattern shows that even when many votes spend above their approved ceilings, national execution can still end below plan if a few very large votes underspend—highlighting concentration risk and the importance of managing the biggest recurrent lines.
Execution distribution over time (vote counts by execution band)
Execution quality becomes much more dispersed in FY2022/23: votes near plan (95–105%) drop to 13 of 98, while 23 votes fall below 80% execution and 30 exceed 105%. FY2023/24 shows partial normalisation (41 votes near plan), but 34 votes still sit outside the 80–105% range, suggesting persistent forecasting and in-year reallocation pressures across the recurrent budget.
National recurrent summary (by year)
| FY | Approved (T) | Actual (T) | Exec % | Variance (T) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/2020 | 20.860 T | 19.883 T | 95.32% | -0.976 T |
| 2020/2021 | 22.101 T | 20.602 T | 93.22% | -1.499 T |
| 2021/2022 | 23.003 T | 22.496 T | 97.80% | -0.507 T |
| 2022/2023 | 26.475 T | 27.070 T | 102.25% | 0.595 T |
| 2023/2024 | 29.173 T | 27.332 T | 93.69% | -1.841 T |
Across the five years, four years record underspend and one year records overspend. FY2022/23 is the exception, with a 0.595 T overspend (102.25% execution). The largest underspend is FY2023/24 at 1.841 T (93.69%), followed by FY2020/21 at 1.499 T (93.22%).
Top 10 by actual: stability across years
| Vote | Years in Top 10 | Overspend years | 5-year Actual (T) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vote 022 — Consolidated Fund Services | 5 | 1 | 33.834 T |
| Vote 038 — Defence | 5 | 5 | 9.560 T |
| Vote 021 — The Treasury | 5 | 0 | 3.875 T |
| Vote 028 — Ministry of Home Affairs-Police Force | 5 | 5 | 3.696 T |
| Vote 030 — President's Office and Cabinet Secretariat | 5 | 3 | 2.779 T |
| Vote 046 — Ministry of Education, Science and Technology | 5 | 2 | 2.558 T |
| Vote 052 — Ministry of Health | 5 | 2 | 2.490 T |
| Vote 039 — National Service | 5 | 4 | 2.213 T |
| Vote 069 — Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism | 3 | 1 | 1.326 T |
| Vote 088 — RAS Dar es Salaam | 3 | 0 | 0.984 T |
| Vote 001 — Public Debt | 2 | 2 | 20.452 T |
| Vote 007 — The Treasury Registrar | 1 | 1 | 0.358 T |
| Vote 081 — RAS Mwanza | 1 | 0 | 0.242 T |
Top-10 composition is stable but not fixed: 13 unique votes appear in the Top 10 at least once, while 8 votes remain in the Top 10 in every year. Those 8 always-Top10 votes executed 61.006 T over the period—51.97% of all five-year recurrent spending—showing that a small core of votes drives national outcomes. Historically, Vote 022 (Consolidated Fund Services) is the largest persistent spender (33.834 T over five years), while Vote 001 (Public Debt) enters only in the last two years yet already totals 20.452 T, reinforcing the post-FY2022/23 structural shift.
Execution Consistency Heatmap: Recurrent Votes That Always Dominate Spending (FY2019/20–FY2023/24)
| Vote | 2019/2020 | 2020/2021 | 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote 022 — Consolidated Fund Services | 96.55% | 89.08% | 95.91% | 138.40% | 76.99% |
| Vote 038 — Defence | 105.39% | 105.14% | 104.08% | 109.87% | 100.54% |
| Vote 021 — The Treasury | 41.80% | 59.56% | 55.97% | 49.92% | 44.46% |
| Vote 028 — Ministry of Home Affairs-Police Force | 110.29% | 112.19% | 102.52% | 133.08% | 110.41% |
| Vote 030 — President's Office and Cabinet Secretariat | 122.47% | 99.47% | 106.95% | 116.00% | 98.73% |
| Vote 046 — Ministry of Education, Science and Technology | 99.88% | 103.84% | 97.99% | 93.21% | 103.46% |
| Vote 052 — Ministry of Health | 81.91% | 84.38% | 100.86% | 113.94% | 99.65% |
| Vote 039 — National Service | 181.03% | 109.22% | 105.01% | 101.88% | 99.59% |
Heatmap: green = near 100% execution, red = under-execution, amber = over-execution.
Eight votes remain in the Top 10 by actual expenditure in every year, and their execution patterns explain much of the system’s performance. Vote 021 (The Treasury) shows chronic under-execution, staying between 41.80% and 59.56% in all five years. Vote 022 swings sharply—from near-plan execution in FY2019/20–FY2021/22 (around 90–96%) to 138.40% in FY2022/23 and down to 76.99% in FY2023/24—consistent with the structural break seen in the composition chart. Several large service-delivery votes move closer to plan over time (for example, Vote 052 improves from 81.91% in FY2019/20 to 99.65% in FY2023/24).
5-year execution story (Recurrent Budget)
- • Over FY2019/20–FY2023/24, 117.383 T was spent against 121.610 T approved (96.52% overall execution), leaving a cumulative underspend of 4.228 T.
- • The recurrent envelope expanded materially: approved rose from 20.860 T to 29.173 T (+39.85%), and actual increased from 19.883 T to 27.332 T (+37.46%).
- • National execution was volatile: it bottomed at 93.22% in FY2020/21 (−1.499 T) and peaked at 102.25% in FY2022/23 (+0.595 T) before falling to 93.69% in FY2023/24 (−1.841 T).
- • Concentration is persistent: the Top 10 votes consistently execute 70.05–73.58% of total recurrent spending; the 8 votes that are always in the Top 10 account for 61.006 T (51.97% of five-year spend).
- • A structural break occurs from FY2022/23: Vote 001 (Public Debt) becomes the largest recurrent line (9.960 T in FY2022/23; 10.492 T in FY2023/24), while Vote 022’s share falls from about 45–47% in FY2019/20–FY2021/22 to 11.37% then 6.52%.
- • Persistent execution issues remain within major votes: Vote 021 (The Treasury) stays below 60% execution in every year, indicating recurring planning, cash-release, or classification challenges in a high-profile recurrent line.