Approved Total (5y)
150,365,827,058,143
Actual Total (5y)
142,080,285,417,345
Execution (comp yrs)
92.18%
Variance (comp yrs)
−8.788 T
Best Year (Execution)
FY 2023/24 — 94.19%
Worst Year (Execution)
FY 2020/21 — 89.56%
Votes with Approved increase (2019/20→2023/24)
56
Votes with Actual increase (2019/20→2023/24)
53
Note: 2021/22, 2022/23 excluded due to missing Approved or Actual.
Revenue Plan vs Collection — Approved vs Actual with Execution Rate (Selected FYs)
Across the years with complete macro totals (FY2019/20, FY2020/21 and FY2023/24), approved revenue rose from 33.105 T to 44.388 T (+34.1%), while collections rose from 30.540 T to 41.808 T (+36.9%). Despite this growth, collections stayed below plan in every comparable year: execution ranged from 89.56% (FY2020/21, weakest) to 94.19% (FY2023/24, strongest), producing a cumulative shortfall of −8.789 T across the comparable years. FY2021/22 (missing Actual) and FY2022/23 (missing Approved) are excluded from the trend lines.
Revenue Concentration Over Time: Share of the Largest Vote
Revenue is structurally concentrated in a single vote (Treasury). In FY2019/20 the top vote accounts for 90.17% of approved revenue and 91.25% of collections; in FY2020/21 it rises to 91.69% (approved) and 93.77% (actual). FY2023/24 is the key signal: the plan appears more diversified (72.50% Top1 share in approved), but collections remain highly concentrated (91.09% Top1 share in actual). This widening “plan vs outturn concentration gap” suggests that diversification in estimates is not yet translating into diversified collections—heightening fiscal risk if the dominant source underperforms. Note: FY2021/22 and FY2022/23 are excluded here due to missing macro totals in the source.
Do the Same Votes Drive Plan and Collections? Top 10 Overlap (Selected FYs)
| FY | Overlap (of 10) | Approved-only vote codes | Actual-only vote codes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | 9 | 058 | 099 |
| 2020/21 | 9 | 058 | 023 |
| 2023/24 | 8 | 001, 068 | 028, 072 |
The Top10 votes driving the plan largely overlap with the Top10 votes driving collections, but alignment weakens in FY2023/24. Overlap is 9/10 in FY2019/20 and 9/10 in FY2020/21, falling to 8/10 in FY2023/24. In FY2023/24, two votes are planned Top10 but not collected Top10 (Vote 1, Vote 68), while two are collected Top10 but not planned Top10 (Vote 28, Vote 72). Policy implication: forecasting and compliance/collection capacity are drifting in different directions for a small set of high-impact votes—these should be treated as priority lines for in-year monitoring and re-forecasting. Note: FY2021/22 and FY2022/23 are excluded here due to missing macro totals in the source.
Execution Consistency Heatmap: Recurrent Top Collectors (FY2019/20–FY2023/24)
| Vote (recurrent Top10 by Actual) | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | Top10 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote 021 — The Treasury | 95.75% | 91.12% | — | — | 118.23% | 4 |
| Vote 007 — The Treasury Registrar | 64.80% | 68.49% | — | — | 71.25% | 4 |
| Vote 100 — Ministry of Minerals | 111.68% | 111.03% | — | — | 85.59% | 4 |
| Vote 046 — Ministry of Education, Science and Technology | 97.33% | 97.88% | — | — | 71.77% | 4 |
| Vote 093 — Immigration Services Department | 57.19% | 42.18% | — | — | 96.07% | 4 |
| Vote 088 — RAS Dar es Salaam | 105.35% | 99.36% | — | — | 111.88% | 4 |
| Vote 048 — Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development | 55.88% | 61.18% | — | — | 46.31% | 4 |
| Vote 028 — Ministry of Home Affairs-Police Force | 63.80% | 61.37% | — | — | 90.06% | 4 |
Heatmap guide: green = 95–105% (near plan), red = <95% (under-execution), amber = >105% (over-execution). Votes shown appear in the Top10 by actual collections in at least 4 of 5 years. Cells show execution (Actual ÷ Approved).
This heatmap tracks execution consistency among votes that repeatedly sit in the Top10 by collections over FY2019/20–FY2023/24 (FY2021/22 missing Actual; FY2022/23 missing Approved in the source). The recurrent “always-Top10” group captures ~97% of collections in each comparable year, and Treasury (Vote 021) alone contributes ~91% of collections (~90.89% across five-year totals)—meaning national revenue execution is overwhelmingly Treasury execution. Policy implication: forecast credibility and in-year monitoring should prioritize Treasury first, while recurrent non-Treasury votes that stay persistently below plan should be treated as priority risk votes (tighter assumptions + early escalation) because their shortfalls compound the system’s concentration risk.
Top 10 Planned Revenue Votes — Selected FYs (Approved)
| # | Vote | Approved (T) | Actual (T) | Exec % (Approved>0 yrs) | Variance (T, comp yrs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vote 021 — The Treasury | 126.572 T | 129.146 T | 102.01% | +1.863 T |
| 2 | Vote 001 — Public Debt | 7.541 T | 0.000 T | 0.00% | −7.541 T |
| 3 | Vote 007 — The Treasury Registrar | 3.727 T | 3.024 T | 68.31% | −0.934 T |
| 4 | Vote 100 — Ministry of Minerals | 2.530 T | 2.544 T | 99.25% | −0.014 T |
| 5 | Vote 093 — Immigration Services Department | 1.183 T | 0.805 T | 62.69% | −0.356 T |
| 6 | Vote 048 — Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development | 0.901 T | 0.517 T | 53.22% | −0.318 T |
| 7 | Vote 046 — Ministry of Education, Science and Technology | 0.893 T | 0.794 T | 88.24% | −0.082 T |
| 8 | Vote 088 — RAS Dar es Salaam | 0.776 T | 0.860 T | 106.32% | +0.037 T |
| 9 | Vote 058 — Ministry of Energy | 0.763 T | 0.000 T | 0.02% | −0.762 T |
| 10 | Vote 068 — Ministry of Communication and Information Technology | 0.650 T | 0.081 T | 23.16% | −0.156 T |
The approved revenue plan is extremely concentrated: across the 5-year aggregation, the Top10 votes represent 96.83% of all approved revenue captured in the dataset. Treasury (Vote 21) alone accounts for 84.08% of approved totals—meaning forecast errors in a single vote can dominate the national revenue story. This concentration is exactly why execution credibility needs to be assessed at vote-level, not only in aggregate.
Top10 Votes by Actual Revenue Collection (Selected FYs)
| # | Vote | Actual (T) | Approved (T) | Exec % (Approved>0 yrs) | Variance (T, comp yrs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vote 021 — The Treasury | 129.146 T | 126.572 T | 102.01% | +1.863 T |
| 2 | Vote 007 — The Treasury Registrar | 3.024 T | 3.727 T | 68.31% | −0.934 T |
| 3 | Vote 100 — Ministry of Minerals | 2.544 T | 2.530 T | 99.25% | −0.014 T |
| 4 | Vote 088 — RAS Dar es Salaam | 0.860 T | 0.776 T | 106.32% | +0.037 T |
| 5 | Vote 093 — Immigration Services Department | 0.805 T | 1.183 T | 62.69% | −0.356 T |
| 6 | Vote 046 — Ministry of Education, Science and Technology | 0.794 T | 0.893 T | 88.24% | −0.082 T |
| 7 | Vote 048 — Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development | 0.517 T | 0.901 T | 53.22% | −0.318 T |
| 8 | Vote 052 — Ministry of Health | 0.466 T | 0.579 T | 78.09% | −0.089 T |
| 9 | Vote 028 — Ministry of Home Affairs-Police Force | 0.347 T | 0.455 T | 70.91% | −0.106 T |
| 10 | Vote 072 — RAS Dodoma | 0.246 T | 0.290 T | 81.66% | −0.041 T |
Collections are even more concentrated than the plan: the Top10 votes account for 97.70% of total collections, and Treasury (Vote 21) alone contributes 87.53% of collections over the 5-year aggregation. The implication for policymakers is clear: strengthening predictability and enforcement in the dominant collection channels yields outsized macro impact, but it also creates systemic exposure if those channels face shocks.
Top Execution Rates — Selected FYs (Material Votes)
| # | Vote | Exec % | Approved (T, Approved>0 yrs) | Actual (T, Approved>0 yrs) | Variance (T, comp yrs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vote 063 — RAS Geita | 112.49% | 0.072 T | 0.081 T | +0.009 T |
| 2 | Vote 036 — RAS Katavi | 110.41% | 0.035 T | 0.038 T | +0.004 T |
| 3 | Vote 054 — RAS Njombe | 108.03% | 0.062 T | 0.067 T | +0.005 T |
| 4 | Vote 088 — RAS Dar es Salaam | 106.32% | 0.583 T | 0.619 T | +0.037 T |
| 5 | Vote 082 — RAS Ruvuma | 104.57% | 0.063 T | 0.066 T | +0.003 T |
| 6 | Vote 087 — RAS Kagera | 104.57% | 0.080 T | 0.083 T | +0.004 T |
| 7 | Vote 095 — RAS Manyara | 102.41% | 0.054 T | 0.055 T | +0.001 T |
| 8 | Vote 073 — RAS Iringa | 102.18% | 0.075 T | 0.076 T | +0.002 T |
| 9 | Vote 021 — The Treasury | 102.01% | 92.493 T | 94.356 T | +1.863 T |
| 10 | Vote 090 — RAS Songwe | 100.53% | 0.057 T | 0.058 T | +0.000 T |
Note: 63 vote(s) have at least one year with Approved=0 but Actual>0. Those years are excluded from execution calculation (not the whole vote). Approved=0 but Actual>0: execution is undefined for that year. Execution is computed using only years where Approved>0.
Among materially sized votes, the strongest execution is consistently above plan. Across the 45 material votes included in the execution universe, the median execution is 89.99% (middle half of votes roughly 69.31%–102.01%). The Top10 execution votes all exceed 100.53%, indicating structurally conservative estimates or persistent outperformance in those lines. While these upside performers are encouraging, they should be reviewed for rebasing: repeated overperformance is evidence the baseline estimate is set too low, not “unexpected” revenue.
Lowest Execution Votes — 5-Year Performance (Material Votes)
| # | Vote | Exec % | Approved (T)(Approved>0 yrs) | Actual (T)(Approved>0 yrs) | Variance (T)(comp yrs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vote 001 — Public Debt | 0.00% | 7.541 T | 0.000 T | −7.541 T |
| 2 | Vote 058 — Ministry of Energy | 0.02% | 0.763 T | 0.000 T | −0.762 T |
| 3 | Vote 068 — Ministry of Communication and Information Technology | 23.16% | 0.203 T | 0.047 T | −0.156 T |
| 4 | Vote 069 — Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism | 44.25% | 0.056 T | 0.025 T | −0.031 T |
| 5 | Vote 048 — Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development | 53.22% | 0.680 T | 0.362 T | −0.318 T |
| 6 | Vote 093 — Immigration Services Department | 62.69% | 0.953 T | 0.597 T | −0.356 T |
| 7 | Vote 007 — The Treasury Registrar | 68.31% | 2.948 T | 2.013 T | −0.934 T |
| 8 | Vote 028 — Ministry of Home Affairs-Police Force | 70.91% | 0.365 T | 0.259 T | −0.106 T |
| 9 | Vote 023 — Accountant General Department | 76.21% | 0.122 T | 0.093 T | −0.029 T |
| 10 | Vote 065 — PMO-Labour, Youth, Employment and Persons with Disability | 77.56% | 0.124 T | 0.096 T | −0.028 T |
The lowest execution votes represent persistent credibility gaps where collections fail to materialize despite meaningful approved estimates. The Bottom10 range from 0.00% up to 77.56% execution, with several votes showing near-zero realization over the comparable-year basis. The single biggest drag is Public Debt (Vote 1): 7.541 T approved versus 0.000 T collected in the execution years, implying a −7.541 T shortfall on its own. Policy implication: these votes should be treated as “priority risk votes”—tighten forecasting assumptions, strengthen collection/realization plans, and escalate early when in-year performance deviates.
Where Collections Fell Short of Estimates — Top 10 Shortfalls (Selected FYs)
| # | Vote | Variance (T) | Approved (T, all yrs) | Actual (T, all yrs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vote 021 — The Treasury | +1.863 T | 126.572 T | 129.146 T |
| 2 | Vote 088 — RAS Dar es Salaam | +0.037 T | 0.776 T | 0.860 T |
| 3 | Vote 063 — RAS Geita | +0.009 T | 0.097 T | 0.112 T |
| 4 | Vote 054 — RAS Njombe | +0.005 T | 0.083 T | 0.092 T |
| 5 | Vote 087 — RAS Kagera | +0.004 T | 0.105 T | 0.118 T |
| 6 | Vote 036 — RAS Katavi | +0.004 T | 0.047 T | 0.057 T |
| 7 | Vote 082 — RAS Ruvuma | +0.003 T | 0.084 T | 0.092 T |
| 8 | Vote 034 — Ministry Of Foreign Affairs and East Africa Cooperation | +0.002 T | 0.009 T | 0.009 T |
| 9 | Vote 073 — RAS Iringa | +0.002 T | 0.098 T | 0.101 T |
| 10 | Vote 095 — RAS Manyara | +0.001 T | 0.070 T | 0.075 T |
Positive variance (collections above estimates) exists, but it is highly concentrated. Across comparable years, total upside is +1.933 T, and Treasury (Vote 21) contributes +1.863 T—about 96.4% of all positive variance. This pattern suggests upside surprises are not broad-based; they are driven by a single dominant channel. For credibility and planning, recurring upside in the same vote should be converted into a more realistic baseline rather than relied on as a buffer.
Largest Shortfalls (Top10 negative variance, comparable yrs)
| # | Vote | Variance (T) | Approved (T, all yrs) | Actual (T, all yrs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vote 001 — Public Debt | −7.541 T | 7.541 T | 0.000 T |
| 2 | Vote 007 — The Treasury Registrar | −0.934 T | 3.727 T | 3.024 T |
| 3 | Vote 058 — Ministry of Energy | −0.762 T | 0.763 T | 0.000 T |
| 4 | Vote 093 — Immigration Services Department | −0.356 T | 1.183 T | 0.805 T |
| 5 | Vote 048 — Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development | −0.318 T | 0.901 T | 0.517 T |
| 6 | Vote 068 — Ministry of Communication and Information Technology | −0.156 T | 0.650 T | 0.081 T |
| 7 | Vote 028 — Ministry of Home Affairs-Police Force | −0.106 T | 0.455 T | 0.347 T |
| 8 | Vote 052 — Ministry of Health | −0.089 T | 0.579 T | 0.466 T |
| 9 | Vote 046 — Ministry of Education, Science and Technology | −0.082 T | 0.893 T | 0.794 T |
| 10 | Vote 072 — RAS Dodoma | −0.041 T | 0.290 T | 0.246 T |
Shortfalls dominate the credibility story across comparable years: total downside is −10.721 T, and it is sharply concentrated. Public Debt (Vote 1) alone contributes −7.541 T (about 70.3% of all shortfalls), and the Top3 shortfall votes together account for about 86.2% of the total downside. Policy implication: national execution credibility hinges on a very small number of high-impact votes—improving forecasting and realization performance in these lines will deliver disproportionate gains in fiscal reliability.
Revenue Execution — 5-Year Summary (FY2019/20–FY2023/24)
- • Five-year totals (all available years): Approved 150.366 T vs Actual 142.080 T.
- • Comparable-year execution (FY2019/20, FY2020/21, FY2023/24): Approved 112.374 T vs Actual 103.585 T (92.19% execution), for a cumulative shortfall of −8.789 T.
- • Best execution year is FY2023/24 (94.19%); weakest is FY2020/21 (89.56%). FY2021/22 (missing Actual) and FY2022/23 (missing Approved) are excluded from the trend charts.
- • Collections are structurally concentrated: Treasury (Vote 021) delivers 90.89% of five-year collections and ~91% of collections in each charted year.
- • Non-Treasury top collectors are smaller but more volatile; fastest credibility gains come from rebasing repeated Treasury over-performance and escalating chronic under-execution votes as “priority risk votes.”
- • Plan–reality alignment weakens in FY2023/24 (Top10 overlap falls to 8/10), indicating emerging forecasting drift in a small number of votes.
- • Shortfalls are the main risk: −10.721 T cumulative downside across comparable years, with Public Debt (Vote 001) contributing 70.33% of the pool. Public Debt + Energy together account for 77.44%—priority ‘risk votes’ for tighter forecasting and in-year escalation.