Approved Revenue (FY)
44,388,066,719,001
Actual Collection (FY)
41,807,967,944,531
Execution (FY)
94.19%
Variance (FY)
−2.580 T
Execution = Actual ÷ Approved.
National Revenue Performance: Plan vs Outturn
FY 2023/24 collected 41.808 T TZS against an approved estimate of 44.388 T TZS (94.19% execution), producing a net variance of −2.580 T TZS. Under the hood, this “net” masks two big forces: gross shortfalls of 8.518 T TZS versus gross over-collections of 5.938 T TZS—meaning over-collections covered 69.71% of the total shortfall, but not enough to close the gap. The picture is highly concentrated: Treasury (Vote 21) alone collected 38.060 T TZS (about 91% of all collections) and over-performed its estimate by +5.868 T TZS (118.23% execution)—yet the overall year still finished below plan because the largest shortfalls were larger than the upside.
Top Revenue Votes: Do Collections Match the Plan?
Top 10 by Approved
| # | Vote | Approved (T) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vote 021 — The Treasury | 32.192 T |
| 2 | Vote 001 — Public Debt | 7.541 T |
| 3 | Vote 007 — The Treasury Registrar | 1.069 T |
| 4 | Vote 100 — Ministry of Minerals | 0.882 T |
| 5 | Vote 048 — Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development | 0.300 T |
| 6 | Vote 093 — Immigration Services Department | 0.270 T |
| 7 | Vote 046 — Ministry of Education, Science and Technology | 0.253 T |
| 8 | Vote 088 — RAS Dar es Salaam | 0.247 T |
| 9 | Vote 052 — Ministry of Health | 0.200 T |
| 10 | Vote 068 — Ministry of Communication and Information Technology | 0.151 T |
Top 10 by Actual
| # | Vote | Actual (T) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vote 021 — The Treasury | 38.060 T |
| 2 | Vote 007 — The Treasury Registrar | 0.762 T |
| 3 | Vote 100 — Ministry of Minerals | 0.755 T |
| 4 | Vote 088 — RAS Dar es Salaam | 0.276 T |
| 5 | Vote 093 — Immigration Services Department | 0.259 T |
| 6 | Vote 052 — Ministry of Health | 0.183 T |
| 7 | Vote 046 — Ministry of Education, Science and Technology | 0.181 T |
| 8 | Vote 048 — Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development | 0.139 T |
| 9 | Vote 028 — Ministry of Home Affairs-Police Force | 0.100 T |
| 10 | Vote 072 — RAS Dodoma | 0.070 T |
Alignment
Overlap count: 8
Approved-only:
001, 068
Actual-only:
028, 072
Revenue is dominated by a small set of votes: in FY 2023/24 the Top10 votes account for 97.11% of the approved plan and 97.55% of actual collections. The single largest line item is Treasury (Vote 21)—72.53% of planned revenue and 91.03% of collections—so overall execution is extremely sensitive to what happens in that vote. Alignment is relatively high (8/10 overlap) but not perfect: two votes that appear in the Top10 plan do not appear in the Top10 collections (Vote 1 — Public Debt; Vote 68 — Ministry of Land, Housing and Human Settlements Development), while two others enter the Top10 collections instead (Vote 28 — Ministry of Home Affairs; Vote 72 — President’s Office – Regional Administration and Local Government). Implication: improving credibility is not just about “raising collections,” it is also about re-basing estimates to match the realised collection mix and tightening monitoring on the few votes that dominate outcomes.
Top Performers: Highest Collection vs Estimate (Execution %)
This chart shows the strongest execution among materially sized votes (Approved ≥ 0.020 T TZS). Across all material votes in FY 2023/24, the median execution is 95.65% (middle 50% of votes fall roughly between 69.50% and 110.52%), and 17 of 36 material votes land within ±10% of plan—evidence that many estimates are “close,” but the tail risks matter. The top performer is again Treasury (Vote 21) at 118.23% execution with +5.868 T TZS variance, signalling that at least part of the forecasting baseline is conservative or that collections exceeded assumptions. Policy implication: where over-performance repeats, it should be converted into a more realistic baseline rather than treated as a one-off “bonus.”
Largest Credibility Risks: Lowest Execution vs Estimate (Bottom Votes)
These are the largest credibility and delivery risks among material votes: the Bottom10 collect far below plan and are responsible for almost the entire downside. In FY 2023/24, the Bottom10’s combined variance is −8.413 T TZS, which is 98.75% of all shortfalls recorded across votes. The most extreme case is Public Debt (Vote 1) at 0.00% execution with a variance of −7.541 T TZS—a single line that is about 2.9× the national net shortfall (because other votes over-performed and partially offset it). Policy implication: closing the national gap does not require fixing everything—targeted interventions on this small group (re-basing unrealistic estimates, tightening collection/enforcement, and stronger in-year risk management) will move the headline result the fastest.
Revenue Upside: Biggest Over-Performance vs Plan
Over-collections exist, but they are highly concentrated. In FY 2023/24 the total upside across votes is +5.938 T TZS, and the Top3 over-collections explain 99.54% of that upside. The dominant source is Treasury (Vote 21) with +5.868 T TZS variance (118.23% execution)—meaning the “good news” in the system is driven by a handful of lines rather than broad-based over-performance. Policy implication: the right response is to separate structural gains from one-offs—structural gains should be built into the baseline, while one-offs should not be relied on to fund recurring commitments.
Where the Plan Broke: Largest Under-Collections vs Estimates
Shortfalls are the main reason FY 2023/24 fell below plan: total downside across votes is −8.518 T TZS, and it is strongly concentrated—the Top3 shortfalls account for 94.03% of all shortfalls. Public Debt (Vote 1) alone contributes 88.54% of the entire shortfall pool (−7.541 T TZS). Policy implication: the budget’s credibility hinges on a small number of high-impact lines—these should be treated as “priority risk votes” with tighter forecasting assumptions, stronger collection/realisation plans, and routine in-year escalation when performance deviates from plan.
FY 2023/24 Revenue Performance: What Matters and Why
- • FY 2023/24 headline: Approved 44.388 T TZS vs collected 41.808 T TZS (94.19% execution), net variance −2.580 T TZS.
- • What drove the net result: Gross shortfalls 8.518 T TZS outweighed gross over-collections 5.938 T TZS; over-collections offset 69.71% of the shortfall but did not fully close the gap.
- • Concentration: The Top10 votes represent 97.11% of the plan and 97.55% of collections; Treasury (Vote 21) alone delivers 91.03% of collections and over-performed by +5.868 T TZS (118.23% execution).
- • Plan vs reality alignment: Top10 planned vs Top10 collected overlap is 8/10; differences indicate real shifts in where revenue materialised (plan-only: Vote 1 Public Debt; Vote 68 Lands; actual-only: Vote 28 Home Affairs; Vote 72 PO-RALG).
- • Where the downside sits: The Bottom10 execution votes account for −8.413 T TZS, i.e., 98.75% of all shortfalls—with Public Debt (Vote 1) alone at −7.541 T TZS.
- • Implication for decision-makers: Credibility improves fastest by treating the few dominant votes as priority risk votes—tighten forecasting where shortfalls persist, institutionalise structural over-performance into the baseline, and strengthen in-year monitoring so deviations trigger early corrective action.